The Hurricane Pundit

Hurricane Fred becomes a major hurricane.

Sean Johnson-Maven — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 15:36:10 +0000

Hurricane Fred has been upgraded to a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 120 mph as of 11 AM AST. Fred is now the strongest storm that far south and east in the Atlantic basin with a pressure of 958 mb. Fred is now also the third hurricane to reach Category 3 intensity east of 35W (the other two being Hurricanes Frances of 1980 and Isaac of 2000).

EDIT 11:40 AM: Oh, I forgot to mention, the ADT estimates place this as a Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph and a 948 mb pressure.

Jimena now the most intense storm in EPAC in 7 years.

Sean Johnson-Maven — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 19:50:13 +0000

The latest data suggests that Jimena has strengthened since the Hurricane Hunters last went in. The pressure is now held at 931 mb and there was a 925 mb reading. This makes Jimena the most intense storm east of 140W since Kenna in 2002.

Was Jimena a Category 5 on Sunday?

Sean Johnson-Maven — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 18:22:35 +0000

About a half hour ago, data from the plane flying in Hurricane Jimena found a pressure of 936 mb and winds of 150 mph. This is higher than what has been estimated for the last 12 hours. Considering the fact that Jimena appears to be on a weakening trend, there is now a greater possibility that yesterday, Jimena became a Category 5. IMHO, I believe that Jimena was a major hurricane nearly 18 hours before it was officially upgraded.

If Jimena was indeed a Category 5 hurricane, it would be only the 2nd worldwide since 2007. It would also be the first to exist east of 140W since Kenna in 2002, the first east of the IDL since Ioke in 2006 and the first in the western hemisphere since Felix in 2007.

Recon set for 4 AM

Sean Johnson-Maven — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 02:22:53 +0000

There is currently a research flight scheduled for 4AM for Hurricane Bill. Bill has just been upgraded to a Category 2 and may be beginning rapid intensification.

I’m back!

Sean Johnson-Maven — Fri, 15 May 2009 23:06:09 +0000

Today marks the first day of the 2009 East Pacific hurricane season. I will try to stay up to date on my blog this season instead of abandoning it while two Category 4s go through the Caribbean.

Norbert now a major hurricane.

Sean Johnson-Maven — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 10:27:01 +0000

Norbert has strengthened overnight into a Category 3 hurricane. The official forecast brings Norbert to 135-mph in 24 hours. The GFDL estimates that Norbert is already a Category 4, and predicts that the storm will fluctuate between Cat. 4 and Cat. 1, but ultimately strike the Baja Peninsula as a Category 3. The HWRF is predicting a 911-mb hurricane (which would make Norbert the 2nd strongest hurricane on record in the East Pacific) in 48 hours. Their forecast has Norbert striking the Baja Peninsula as a strong-Category 4 or Category 5 with a 917 mb pressure. If this forecast plays out, then Norbert will be the first Category 5 east of the Dateline since Ioke in 2006, and the first east of 140W since Kenna in 2002. I will try to post an update during my lunch break between English.

Also, it is official: Marco was the smallest tropical cyclone on record in any basin (10-miles).

Marco: The smallest Atlantic storm on record?

Sean Johnson-Maven — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 11:12:38 +0000

Last night, at the 10 PM CDT Discussion, it was stated that Marco may be the smallest tropical cyclone on record worldwide. Since then, the wind field of Marco has shrunk to nearly 10-miles in diameter. Marco is expected to move inland later this morning, probably just to the south of Tuxpan. The NHC is still predicting that Marco may reach 70-mph winds just before making landfall.

In the meantime, in the East Pacific, Norbert has become a hurricane. The official forecast brings Norbert to 90-mph in 36 hours. The GFDL is predicting a 100-mph hurricane making landfall on the Baja Peninsula in 120 hours. The HWRF is predicting a low-end Category 4 – high-end Category 3 striking the Baja Peninsula in 102 hours, and for it to still have a 944-mb pressure by the time it enters the Gulf of California.

Norbert forecast to become major hurricane this week.

Sean Johnson-Maven — Sun, 05 Oct 2008 18:58:29 +0000

The GFDL and HWRF have both been forecasting Tropical Storm Norbert to become a major hurricane sometime this week. The GFDL brings Norbert to a peak intensity of 120 mph in 66 hours, while the HWRF is much more aggressive: they are predicting that Norbert will become the second most intense East Pacific hurricane on record in 66 hours. Both models are predicting that Norbert will strike the Baja Peninsula, but the models have moved farther to the north since the 00z run.

18z model run out

Sean Johnson-Maven — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 00:25:08 +0000

GFDL

Time	Wind	Pressure
6hrs	135	952
12hrs	145	950
18hrs	135	948
24hrs	120	945
30hrs	145	940
36hrs	135	944
42hrs	140	944
48hrs	135	941
54hrs	120	941
60hrs	115	945
66hrs	80	957
72hrs	45	966
78hrs	40	973
84hrs	35	976
90hrs	50	978
96hrs	65	977
102hrs	65	977
108hrs	75	975
114hrs	50	972
120hrs	75	962
126hrs	90	953

HWRF

Time	Wind	Pressure
6hrs	80	951
12hrs	80	954
18hrs	85	951
24hrs	100	937
30hrs	90	939
36hrs	110	935
42hrs	110	933
48hrs	110	925
54hrs	125	914
60hrs	140	911
66hrs	115	924
72hrs	60	952
78hrs	40	977
84hrs	30	987
90hrs	30	995
96hrs	25	999
102hrs	25	1001
108hrs	25	1000
114hrs	35	1002
120hrs	30	1000
126hrs	25	1001

It’s official: Ike likely to strike at Cat. 4

Sean Johnson-Maven — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 22:19:45 +0000

The new NHC forecast is out, and unfortunately, the situation that the GFDL and HWRF have been forecasting for the last couple of days now seems to be a reality: Ike could become the first Category 4 to hit Texas since Hurricane Carla (coincidentally, tomorrow is the 47th anniversary of the landfall of Carla).

GFDL

Time	Wind	Pressure
6hrs	120	955
12hrs	125	956
18hrs	140	953
24hrs	155	944
30hrs	140	943
36hrs	150	939
42hrs	140	941
48hrs	145	940
54hrs	145	941
60hrs	145	943
66hrs	110	951
72hrs	65	962
78hrs	45	970
84hrs	45	976
90hrs	40	978
96hrs	50	977
102hrs	65	979
108hrs	105	977
114hrs	90	974
120hrs	50	999
126hrs	35	1008

HWRF

Time	Wind	Pressure
6hrs	85	954
12hrs	80	949
18hrs	85	949
24hrs	80	949
30hrs	100	942
36hrs	110	935
42hrs	105	931
48hrs	115	923
54hrs	120	917
60hrs	135	912
66hrs	145	906
72hrs	90	925
78hrs	50	955
84hrs	40	977
90hrs	30	987
96hrs	25	995
102hrs	25	999
108hrs	25	1003
114hrs	20	1003
120hrs	20	1006
126hrs	20	1006